Nov 6, 2026
The Rain Arrives Tonight, Then a Cool, Dry Weekend Reset (Nov 5 Brief)
Called 70° and Rain; got 71.6° and 2.90″.
Forecast Check
We grade our own forecasts.
Latest forecast grade: B
Every forecast we publish gets checked — and graded. The next morning, each forecast day is scored A through F against what actually happened, using the rubric below, and the grade is posted here whether it was an A or an F. When we bust — and every forecaster busts — the miss gets a full entry too: what we said, what happened, and why, in plain English. Nothing gets quietly edited. Nothing gets deleted.
Forecast Scorecard
Last 2 forecast days: 1 A · 1 B
Grades are posted a day or two after the forecast, once the day's weather is in the books.
Nov 5, 2026
Near 80 Wednesday, Then the Rain Finally Arrives Thursday Night (Nov 3 Brief)
Called 79° and Dry; got 77.5° and 0.00″.
The Rubric
Every forecast day gets a letter grade, and the grade is set by the worst element of the forecast — temperature, rain call, or the headline call.
A
Nailed it: high within 3°, rain call right, headline right.
B
Close: high off 4–5°, or the rain call one notch off.
C
Off: high off 6–9°, or the rain call two notches off.
D
A bust on one element.
F
A bust across the board.
Rain-call categories
| Call | Forecast chance of rain | Observed rain |
|---|---|---|
| Dry | ≤ 20% | under 0.05″ |
| Showers | 21–60% | 0.05–0.49″ |
| Rain | 61–85% | 0.50–0.99″ |
| Soaker | ≥ 86% (with 1″+ wording) | 1.00″ or more |
Bust Log — Every Miss, Explained
The log is open. No busts on record — when we miss, it will be posted here.